I wrote this using bullet points. I have my reasons.
1. I think the problem with the Mueller investigation is that people assume it’s going to reveal some totally bizarre/insane/criminal Trump campaign activity that is so egregious that it’ll blow everyone’s mind and a consensus will instantly form around impeachment in the broader public.
2. The reality is that it’s just going to reveal that Trump is guilty of the things he’s already been accused of, and that everyone knows he’s done. None of it will be surprising. to anybody. Everyone already knows he’s been doing quid pro quo with Russia and Saudi Arabia in exchange for favors that benefit his businesses. Everyone knows he’s being bribed. Everyone knows he’s violated the emoluments clause. The issue with Trump has never been the stealthy bad stuff he did that we don’t know about. We basically know all the bad stuff he’s done for the last few years, thanks to the diligent journalism of many reporters. At best, Mueller will be able to “confirm” some of this stuff with hard evidence. But…
3. The problem is not that people don’t know about it; it’s that a third of the country doesn’t actually care about it. They’re terrified about the demographic change that’s happening in America and they want Trump in office so he can do everything in his power to stop it. These folks don’t care whether anything he’s done is “illegal” or not. They want their group to triumph over the others.
4. You can’t arrest a sitting President for breaking the law, or sue them in civil court for doing something that harmed you. This is a good thing, since literally every sitting President would spend all their time in court fighting off frivolous charges and lawsuits from their political opposition, and the President would never actually be able to do their job.
5. The only remedy to the problem of the President’s criminality is impeachment, and impeachment is not a legal, procedural matter; it’s a political process.
6. I believe, based on the results of the past election, that 55% of Americans would support Trump’s impeachment. But I don’t believe there are 67 Senators who do, which is the threshold that actually needs to be cleared to remove Trump from office.
7. The results of the Mueller investigation will not shock America’s conscience so much that it will deliver 2/3rds of Americans into an anti-Trump coalition that will pressure Congress to remove him from office. In fact, I suspect very few minds will be changed, no matter what Mueller reveals.
8. The best thing that Mueller will do is to get the information about Trump’s specific criminal wrongdoing into the public record. Maybe that’ll matter to voters in 2020. Maybe it won’t.
9. I’m just saying don’t believe the hype that Mueller will be the straw that broke the camel’s back. Nothing Mueller reveals will cause Republicans to stop supporting their President. Most of them really like Donald Trump and his policies. We will not convince them otherwise by going step by step through the facts in the Mueller report.